Copper and aluminum continue to see position reduction and adjustment, while alumina shows stronger performance in nearby months than in distant months [institutional commentary]

Published: May 20, 2025 17:06

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[Futures Market] During the night session, SHFE copper opened higher and fluctuated, pulled back at the morning open, and continued to decline in the afternoon. The most-traded June futures contract closed at 77,540, down 0.26%. Both total trading volume and total open interest decreased slightly. SHFE aluminum opened lower during the night session and fluctuated rangebound during the day session until the close. The most-traded July futures contract closed at 20,075, down 0.45%. Alumina jumped initially and then pulled back, exhibiting a backwardation structure. The most-traded September futures contract closed at 3,134, up 1.42%. Total trading volume decreased, while total open interest increased by over 30,000 lots.

[Analysis] Copper continues to adjust with reduced open interest, and the June contract also faces a shift to later-dated contracts. The recent mediocre macro environment fails to provide strong driving force for futures prices, with the futures market prone to fluctuations. Although alumina remains strong, its impact on aluminum prices is weak. Currently, aluminum is gradually entering the off-season for consumption, and attention should be paid to the price feedback from aluminum to alumina in the later period.

[Valuation] Copper is moderately to highly valued; aluminum is fairly valued.

[Risks] External risks.

(Source: China Fortune Futures)

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